Hello from London,

Over the years I’ve learned a couple of rules about making predictions on world affairs. One, it rarely pays to be certain about something. Remember those forecasters who were dead sure Hillary Clinton would trounce Donald Trump in 2016, or that pragmatic Britons could not be so foolish as to vote for Brexit? Another is that pessimists tend to be judged as wise. If you forecast a miserable outcome, you may be quickly forgiven or forgotten if things turn out to be rosier. Europe’s winter, for example, hasn’t been the economic and energy disaster that many expected. Optimists who get things wrong, in contrast, can expect to be pilloried. 

With those rules in mind, what should anyone make of the stories now dominating the news? Take the war in Ukraine. For months warnings have swirled that Russia would launch a big offensive early this year. It looks like it is already under way—or is there more to come? We have offered a relatively optimistic view: Russia’s long-standing pounding of the city of Bakhmut may in fact count as the much-trumpeted “second offensive”. It isn’t going particularly well for the attackers. And Russia’s army may be running short on manpower and artillery. (We also just published a powerful diary from a Ukrainian soldier fighting in the war.) Meanwhile, let me recommend our latest podcast series, Next Year in Moscow, by our Russia correspondent, Arkady Ostrovksy.

Or take the election in Africa’s most populous country. Voters in Nigeria flocked to the polls at the weekend. The safe prediction is to write about concerns over violence, corruption and election-rigging. In fact, so far, it has proved rather stable and calm. The results are due within a few days—and it’s just possible that an outsider, Peter Obi, will triumph. If he does, we reckon that would constitute rare hope for the country. If not, expect yet more young Nigerians to leave.

And here’s a third, unexpected area for cautious optimism: Brexit. (Yes, you read that right.) Persistent rumours suggest that Britain’s government and the European Union will shortly reform the Northern Ireland protocol, to tackle one of the stickiest points created by Britain’s departure from the EU. This new deal would make it easier to trade goods from Great Britain into Northern Ireland. In turn, that might allow the government in the territory to function again. 

In other news, I’ll be watching the first round of the mayoral election in Chicago, to see if Lori Lightfoot gets re-elected. She may well get the boot. But I dare to predict that at least one thing is certain in American politics: a Democrat—as ever—will be Chicago’s next boss. For Republicans the more gripping event of the week is a gathering of conservative activists for their annual CPAC conference, in Washington, DC. Among the speakers are Mr Trump and Nikki Haley, two contenders for the presidential nomination. Could there be sparks?

I’ll also be eager to see how India’s government handles this week. As the host of the G20 group of countries it welcomes foreign ministers, including Antony Blinken, the American secretary of state, for a meeting. India’s non-aligned role, as a democracy that chooses not to challenge Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, leaves it either isolated or in a useful swing position in international politics.

Let me also flag the latest in our series of book recommendations for “The Economist reads”. This is our new guide to the books you are forbidden to read around the world. Happy (if surreptitious) reading.

Finally, many thanks for your emails while I was away, including a large number on the anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Tyler Storms, from Ruston in Louisiana, calls for America to send fighter jets to Ukraine. Europe, in turn, “needs to quit being so afraid” and learn to stand up to Russia. Tyler, I agree, but at least some parts of Europe are showing more spine than once expected. George Stevens, from Vancouver, Canada, argues that because Russians are too willing to go along with their autocratic leaders the country will “always be a menace to its neighbours”. That’s a dispiriting thought, George, and always is a long time, but for now I suspect you are right. And Giulia Thompson, who was born in Italy but lives in Kentucky, USA, laments the divisions she sees in American politics. She calls for unity in the face of the “aggressive enemy”. Ahead of the next presidential election in America, that’s a concern that may grow ever more pressing.

Please continue to write to us at economisttoday@economist.com.